IT in 2011
A forum post on LinkedIn asked us what will IT be like in 2011? I checked the police website and found the IT Swami was last seen in Hokitika, poaching paua (abalone) for the Chinese market. After a close shave while diving under the influence he appears to have seen the light on stripping our birthright to supply Asian greed through Kiwi greed. I finally found him building a gypsy house-truck that included a local area network, UPS and satellite link. I got up early enough in the morning to catch him sober (as he wasn't awake yet) and quickly recorded his predictions while he fumbled for his cigarettes:
Five predictions:
IT professionalism is on the rise. IT will be increasingly run by Information Engineers, with the same levels of academic qualification and ongoing professional accreditation as other branches of engineereing. And eventually with the same licensing under law. Amateurs, self-taught and cowboys are on the way out.
Process standards certification will increase: ISO20000, ISO2700x, ISO38500. These will be as mandatory to doing business as ISO9000 is now (and less of a laughing stock hopefully)
As far as sectors go, look to assurance for growth. By assurance I mean security, audit, compliance to legislation and regulations and standards, and most of all risk management at all levels in IT from strategy to infrastructure.
We are slowly getting over our obsession with tech toys. Technology just does a job, and it now must be justified by business case and implemented by project. But you can't take the geek out of the tech. We'll still get all excited by iPhones and Clouds and Windows 8 (which will run like a dead dog).
We are developing an obession with process instead. We'll have to get over that too, and see that process is no more magic than technology is. The next phase will be to understand that IT is actually about people working on passing information amongst people. Look for an increase in governance, cultural change, real education instead of token training, and professionalism, which brings us back to where I started.
How did he do?
Made in New Zealand 
Comments
If IT was the car industry
Henry Ford has yet to come along..
The next revolution has yet to appear.. We need a tipping point..
Industry do not evolve, they have step wise development... Where is the industrial revolution?
If you can predict that, you are rich man..
I am in RIO today and it could be the caipirinia talking..
Brad Vaughan
ITIL is not an excuse to stop thinking!
Some things I keep reminding myself and some of the people I am trying to advise!!
- A process is not an excuse for thinking!
- A tool is not a rule!
ICCP
There has long been an organization for certification of computing professionals - the ICCP:
http://www.iccp.org/iccpnew/ccp.html
ITIL and the other process standards are, of course, just a part of the professionalism needed in IT.
Certification is not accreditation
Certification is not accreditation.
ICCP appears to have no peer referees, no review of the level of employment, and no ongoing accreditation.
take a look at CITP and compare. The NZ ITCP is even more stringent.
Business Case
So tech will get the same business case as a company jet, a new campus design or whatever. You may think the cowboy is on the way out, but he is usually best in creative business caseing. Implemented by project? TO me that is not future, I am looking towards implemented as a standard process. New tech should not be so hard to implement anymore in 2011 and beyond.
Someone has to comment
Swami sounds a bit gartner'ish.. Nothing that could be measured as right or wrong..
My $0.02 is 2011, same stuff different year. 2 years is nothing in the cycle of IT and certainly nothing in the cycle of enterprise maturity. Its been 20 odd years for me in IT and so little has really changed of significance. More hype, media and lip service than actual progression.
Brad Vaughan
2011 and beyond
Yeah i found 2011 a bit cramped - its really 2011 and beyond.
if it was gartnerish it would be "rise in professionalism. 70% probability "
You are so right about hype and lip service but over that 20 year timeframe I think we have seen change - a very slow maturing as a profession