The IT Swami predicts 2007
The IT Skeptic takes the day off, doing what skeptics do for fun (don’t ask). In his place we have his alter-ego the IT Swami kicking off the New Year with some predictions for IT in the coming twelve months.
In Service Management:
The itSMF, EXIN and ASEB – all snubbed by OGC - will drive the new ISO20000 industry.
The ITIL 3 books will be good. Sales will be brisk. They will be greeted with acclaim in most quarters and criticism in a few (including this site, you can bet). One country in Europe will be less enthusiastic.
There will be legal wrangling over rights to parts of ITIL 3 or its ancilliaries.
The feverish sheep-dipping industry (ITIL Foundations training) will cool as APMG brings it to heel by taking their tithe. Many small players will drop out.
A consulting industry will spring up around ITIL 2 to ITIL 3 “transitions” or “upgrades” or “refresher training” or “re-certification”. Is a “process factory” possible? If so, look for them to arise in India.
Aggressive price wars will break out in the service desk software market as people realise that they all work, pretty much.
Fortunes will be squandered trying to implement CMDB. Several organisations will actually succeed: we will hear about them everywhere (but not how much they spent). The noises about vendor collaboration on CMDB will remain just that.
Look for the continuing trend to adopt process methodologies from other areas of business, primarily manufacturing, in a continuing drive to increase IT operations efficiency (read: less people and less investment).
OGC will launch a participatory, wiki- and forum-based online community for ITIL contributions and feedback. No… wait… that was just a smudge on the crystal ball. They won’t.
And wider afield:
Web 2 will cease to have any meaning at all as it gets applied to everything from Ajax to tags. Forrester will do a white paper on Web 3. Gartner will present a keynote on Web Extended Edition at a major conference.
Neural learning and/or evolutionary software will be used in website design to optimise consumer appeal.
Google, Microsoft and Yahoo will continue to expand, acquire and mimic - consolidating the internet industry. More and more bit players will get swallowed or crushed. A challenger will emerge.
Servers will finally catch up with mainframes and the distinction will disappear (perhaps it already has).
3G phones will remain a plaything of teenagers and geeks (especially teenage geeks). The bulk of the public will stubbornly refuse to want to watch TV on 300x200 pixels. When they want to find a restaurant they will ask someone.
Look for a fusion of game machine and internet-based TV to challenge cable: Microsoft or Sony, your pick. In a similar vein, look out for the virtual (i.e. hosted) home PC using the same game machines and a VirtualPC server farm. Why pay a couple of thousand for a PC and monitor when you already have an Xbox and a TV? Just a little more bandwidth for a little less cost…
The inflatable PC will be announced, using roll-up screen and virtual keyboard.
The growth of YouTube and wannabes will start to peak as all the adolescents and other exhibitionists have too many online profiles to manage, and the female ones start to be driven off by online perverts.
Eastern bloc spammers and pornographers will start getting disappeared by mysterious assassins. The US will announce generous funding for eastern bloc internet connectivity. [Think about what spam costs the US economy each year. Then ponder where many of the spammers are, and what it costs to get someone rubbed out in those places. Then imagine a CIA man with a suitcase full of dollars being fed tip-offs from Echelon. And you heard it from a skeptic blog.]
A new internet craze will emerge involving real-time phone video and a body part or function.
Microsoft will apply for a patent on the binary number system.
Britney Spears will get arrested for gross indecency.
These prognostications are offered for entertainment purposes only. Any conclusions or actions derived from them are the reader’s sole responsibility. The IT Swami will not be responsible for any loss or ritual humiliation resulting from their use. And anyone who believes someone else can see the future gets what they deserve.